Shoko Watanabe on religious doubt and disaffiliation
Shoko Watanabe is a social psychology PhD student at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Shoko received her M.S. in Educational Psychology from Oklahoma State University and her B.A. in theological-historical studies from Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Shoko currently collaborates with Dr. Nathan Todd to study longitudinal patterns of stability and change in religious doubt and engagement. Her dissertation research with Dr. Dov Cohen examines theodicy—how people attempt to understand God amidst suffering. Shoko’s work utilizes original/primary and secondary data analysis approaches, for which she has won a variety of research-related awards from ISSEP & Cleveland State University, University of Illinois, Society for Personality and Social Psychology, and Center for Mind and Culture.
Shoko on the web: Website | Research Gate | Google Scholar
By Kenneth Vail, Cleveland State University. November 2, 2022.
ISSEP: How did you first become aware of and interested in existentialism and existential psychology?
Clockwise from left: Sophie’s World (Gaarder, 1991); the Hawaiian coast; and the concert-like scene of a charismatic Christian church.
Shoko Watanabe: I first became interested in philosophy when I was about 9 years old, after reading Sophie’s World (Gaarder, 1991). (I was still in Japan back then, so it was the Japanese version). I instantly became fascinated by all the BIG questions, like: Where do we come from? and Who am I? That was my first formal exposure to it, and I think one of the reasons it led me here is that, soon thereafter, I lived some of those existential questions about freedom, identity, isolation, spirituality, and so on.
I was born in Japan, and my mom decided to move us to Hawaii when I was around 11 years old. While we were waiting for the visa, we moved in with my grandpa temporarily, which meant switching schools. That turned out to be really valuable, because that was when I had my first opportunity to intentionally change my identity to one of my own choosing. The people at my previous school knew me as shy and introverted, but now I had an opportunity to refashion myself and adopt a new more outgoing identity with the people at my new school. It worked. I made friends, volunteered for student council, and felt myself coming out of my shell and intentionally growing in new and interesting ways. That was when I realized I had always had the freedom to choose who I wanted to become
Then, I moved to Hawaii, which sounds great. But, although I was in classes full of kids who looked like me (Asian), I spoke Japanese and they spoke English and Hawaiian pidgin and classes were taught in English. In Japan, I always got the top grades in all my classes; but in Hawaii, although I was able to do okay in math, I stumbled in the subjects that relied heavily on English, like literature, history, and so on. Similar problems also emerged at home with family, and the result was that I felt isolated, dumb, and like I didn’t really know who I was supposed to be in this new cultural context. Around age 14, my mom’s friend introduced me to “Charismatic Christianity.” It offered the ability to start over (to be “born again”), to eliminate my loneliness and isolation, wash away guilt, and gave structure and guidance about what my “self” ought to be. I immediately converted, which felt great, and I clung to it tightly throughout the rest of high school.
The Oral Roberts University campus features the “Prayer Tower” and resource center (top) and world’s largest statue of praying hands at the campus entrance (right).
After my conversion, I wanted to become a pastor. So, after high school I went to Oral Roberts University, which is a Christian Bible school, seminary, and college in Tulsa Oklahoma. I majored in theology and also took some philosophy classes, but ultimately I felt the religious logic just didn’t add up. Although and perhaps because I was surrounded by other Christians in a religiously strict environment, I saw much hypocrisy within the broader community and also within myself. The result was that I became less and less certain of my beliefs, and felt less and less in common with the people there, to the point where I felt isolated again. Eventually, as time passed, I no longer considered myself a Christian and I actively de-converted.
Although I left religion, my fascination with the big questions remained. Then I came across research by Daryl Van Tongeren, Julie Exline, Daniel Sullivan, and others who were researching religious doubt and deconversion using empirical methods. That was when I became aware there was an entire field dedicated to the science of existential psychology, and that so much of it is oriented to better understanding the important issues I myself had directly experienced.
ISSEP: You’ve been doing some great work studying religious doubts and disaffiliation. Can you tell us more about that research?
Shoko Watanabe: Yeah! My recent research explored the patterns of religious doubt over time and whether those religious doubt trajectories would lead to subsequent religious disaffiliation—which is when a person no longer considers themselves as part of a religious community, it’s when they say they’re not religious anymore.
I relied on data from the National Study of Youth and Religion, which is a nationally representative longitudinal study that tracked thousands of people for more than a decade. The study collected data from each participant four times throughout the important periods of life when people begin to develop their own beliefs and identities—adolescence and young adulthood.
First, I used a special statistical technique called latent class growth modeling to analyze each participants patterns of doubt and identify groups of participants who had similar trajectories over time. That latent class growth model analysis identified five groups of participants with shared doubt trajectories:
The first group (C1) was the set of participants who always doubted religious beliefs—at Waves 1, 2, and 3. This was also the rarest pattern, with just about 4% of the sample who doubted from adolescence through early adulthood.
The second group (C2) entered adolescence (Wave 1) with reasonably strong faith (low doubt), but then slightly increased that doubt by the end of high school (Wave 2) and reported strong doubts about religious beliefs in their early adult years (Wave 3).
The third group (C3) also entered adolescence (Wave 1) with reasonably strong faith (low doubt), wavered near the end of high school (Wave 2), but then reported strong faith in religious beliefs again in their early adult years (Wave 3).
The fourth group (C4) started out with strong doubts at Wave 1, but then more strongly embraced and maintained faith into their early adulthood (throughout Waves 2 and 3).
The fifth group (C5) was the set of participants who never doubted their religious beliefs—throughout Waves 1, 2, and 3. This was, by far, the largest group and the most common trajectory.
Second, I also found these trajectory patterns led to different rates of religious disaffiliation in subsequent years—at Wave 4, during participants mid- to late-twenties (23-28 years old). The highest rates of disaffiliation occurred among the first two groups: 46% of participants who always doubted (C1) eventually disaffiliated, as did 41% of those who initially believed but eventually developed strong doubts (C2). In contrast, the lowest rates of disaffiliation occurred among the last two groups: only 16% of those who initially doubted but then found faith (C4) eventually disaffiliated, as did just 13% of those who never doubted (C5). But 24% of participants who struggled with faith, then doubt, and then faith again (C3) subsequently disaffiliated, which was a lower rate than the strong doubters (C1, C2) yet a higher rate than the consistently faithful (C4, C5).
These data suggest that if participants strongly squashed their doubts by late-adolescence (C4, C5), they would remain religiously affiliated into at least early adulthood; but if they struggled with (C3) or developed strong doubts throughout or shortly after their late adolescent years (C1, C2), then it becomes much more likely that they would eventually reject their religious affiliations in their early adulthood.
ISSEP: What do you see as the most important next steps in your research?
Shoko Watanabe: One future direction is to better understand the antecedents—the circumstances that led participants to experience different levels of doubt at each wave. For example, various circumstances for moral reasoning may have had different effects on doubt trajectories. One common argument for religious belief is that religions teach moral right and wrong and promise that good behavior will be rewarded with God’s favor. For many people, most of the time, that may seem true; they try to be good, they see themselves successfully overcoming life’s routine obstacles, and so they continue to hold their religious beliefs. Indeed, our own analyses found that most people, about 60%, never doubted their religious beliefs (C5). But some people may sometimes encounter circumstances that dramatically violate religious ideas about the moral structure of the universe; as a result, they may struggle to believe a good and loving God can permit evil to exist and inflict suffering on the innocent (the theological problem known as theodicy). Such experiences could help explain why some people in our study (e.g., C1, C2, C3) experienced increased doubt and disaffiliation rates.
Another future direction is to try to better understand the possible silver linings of doubt. For example, although religious faith is certainly comforting, doubt may help us to better accept and understand the more inconvenient truths about the world—in other words, doubt and disaffiliation may help us to grow to become more emotionally and intellectually mature.
ISSEP: Do you see your research being illustrated in the arts, humanities, or pop culture?
Michaelangelo’s Conversione di Saulo (1542-45) fresco in the Pauline Chapel at the Vatican Palace; Ananias Restoring the Sight of St. Paul (c. 1631) by Pietro da Cortona.
Shoko Watanabe: One example is the story of St. Paul’s conversion to Christianity. Prior to the conversion, when he went by the name Saul, he was a Jewish pharisee committed to advancing the Jewish people, defending their traditions, and suppressing the Christian cult. While traveling from Jerusalem to Syrian Damascus—on a mandate from the High Priest to arrest the followers of Jesus there and return them as prisoners for questioning and possible execution—Saul reported that a flashing light blinded him, Jesus questioned his actions, and a Christian (Ananias) restored his sight. Saul took it as an epiphany that Jesus was indeed the Son of God, converted to Christianity, changed his name to Paul, and began a new life as Christian missionary evangelist. St. Paul’s story perhaps illustrates the fourth group identified in our study (C4), which began with strong doubt (about Christianity) followed by a sudden conversion to a strong and persisting Christian faith.
Cartman enjoys his amusement park while Kyle suffers from hemorrhoids and loses faith in God.
Another example comes from South Park, which is profound just as often as it is profane. In the episode titled “Cartmanland” (S5E6), Cartman—who is a massive jerk all the time—inherits a million dollars, buys an amusement park, and enjoys all the rides without having to wait in line; in contrast, Kyle—who is basically a good kid—gets a hemorrhoid. As Cartman continues to be a jerk to Kyle while enjoying his park, Kyle’s hemorrhoid becomes infected and nearly kills him. The injustice of it all causes Kyle to lose faith in God, so his parents tell the story of Job: Job was a good and faithful servant of God; the devil suggested the only reason Job loved God was because God blessed Job in many ways; so to prove the devil wrong, God destroyed everything Job held dear and indeed Job kept the faith. Upon hearing that story, Kyle loses all will to live, noting the story illustrates that God is petulant and unjust and that trying to be a good person is pointless. However, Cartman soon loses his amusement park and becomes extremely miserable, which Kyle views as a sign of divine justice—restoring his faith in God and his will to live. Here, Kyle’s experience likely illustrates the third group in our study (C3), as he initially believed, then experienced doubt as he struggled with the problem of evil, and then returned to faith again.
Portrait of Fyodor Dostoyevsky (c. 1872) by Vasily Perov; Dosteoyevsky’s The Brothers Karamazov (1880).
My last example comes from The Brothers Karamazov (Dostoyevsky, 1880). The various brothers were each raised to be religious, but from there the intelligent Ivan and his younger brother Alexei (Alyosha) part ways. In the famous Grand Inquisitor passage, Ivan recites a story in which characters allege that Jesus misjudged human nature, that neither God nor the Church represent the true nature of things, and that the freedom of human existence comes without any inherent meaning. After hearing the story, Alyosha faithfully sides with Jesus. Indeed, Alyosha illustrates the fifth group in our study (C5) as he was raised religious, never doubted his religious beliefs, and even became a monk in a Russian Orthodox monastery. In contrast, Ivan likely illustrates the second group in our study (C2). Indeed, Ivan tells the story in the first place because, despite his religious upbringing, he eventually came to doubt the logic of a compassionate Christian God amid so much evidence of evil and injustice in the world, had disaffiliated with Christianity, and became atheist.
ISSEP: You’ve attended, and presented research at, our Existential Psychology preconference; how has your experience been with that?
Shoko Watanabe: I loved it! I enjoyed all the talks, especially Daryl Van Tongeren’s presentation of research on suffering, spiritual struggles, and growth. I had read his work before, but it was special to see him discuss it. Another thing I really enjoyed was that after the award ceremony, the winners of the distinguished career contribution awards spent some time talking about the history of how this field developed—that was super interesting. My poster session was also so much more engaging than others I’ve attended, because the people at the preconference were so much more familiar with the general topic. I met so many other people with shared interests, and the conversations were always so productive.
ISSEP: What is one piece of advice you would give to future students who have an interest in following in your footsteps?
Shoko Watanabe: I’ve actually got three bits of advice here:
“Think about what unique perspectives you bring to the table and leverage those experiences and insights to the maximum potential”
First, when you’re deciding which topic areas to pursue, think about topics that are personally relevant to you. Anyone can learn basic methods or advanced statistics, but not everyone can go through certain life experiences and gain relevant insights. So, think about what unique perspectives you bring to the table and leverage those experiences and insights to the maximum potential.
Second, learn a broad variety of statistical skills and methods, because it really broadens the types of research questions you can handle. If you only know how to do a t-test or ANOVA, then you can only address group differences (and only if certain assumptions are met). It’s a good idea to add other techniques to your statistical toolkit, so learn how and when to use things like SEM and HLM, and even qualitative analysis. That way you can be ready to address any type of research question.
Third, take every opportunity to celebrate even the most minor successes. There is so much rejection in academics—rejection letters from programs, from journals, from funding agencies, the list goes on. Sometimes the rejection is merited but remember that sometimes there’s so much competition that it’s essentially random. Either way, balance it out with celebrations of your everyday successes—the lab meeting that went well, the dissertation paragraph you wrote this morning, the journal article you submitted. Each of those are achievements; pat yourself on the back and keep up the good work!
ISSEP: Can you tell us a little about yourself outside the research context?
Shoko Watanabe: Well, I think I’m a foodie and I really love to cook. So, I watch a lot of cooking shows and spend a lot of time thinking about classic dishes as well as innovative new creations. I typically go through cycles, so I’ll spend a few months exploring techniques for hand-stretched noodles or something, and then I’ll move on to other items. I was also a bartender for a while too. So sometimes I tell myself that if the PhD thing doesn’t work out, I can always open a restaurant or something (just kidding!).
Earlier this year I got really into Demon Slayer, which is an anime series about vampire hunting. It was very popular in Japan during the pandemic.
I also have a dog named “LJ”. He’s a 12-year-old corgi who thinks he’s a cat. He has a baby face, he’s incredibly lazy, and I love him.
ISSEP: A lot of us like to listen to music in the lab; what are you listening to lately?
Shoko Watanabe: I absolutely love hip hop and R&B—Drake, Alicia Keys, Usher, Lauryn Hill. The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill is probably my favorite album. Sometimes I get into the mellow stuff, like Sarah Bareilles, Ellie Goulding, Norah Jones, Jason Mraz. Lately I’ve been listening to The Killers old albums. I also listen to a lot of Spanish language music, like Shakira and Romeo Santos.
When I’m working, I listen to different stuff depending on the task. When I’m doing data analysis, I tend to listen to a lot of hip hop and R&B; it’s okay if it has lyrics because I’m mostly working with numbers. But when I’m reading, writing, or spending time thinking, I can’t do any music in English or Japanese because it’ll interfere with my thought processes, so I switch to Spanish music and just enjoy the rhythms.